We need a reset. We all need a reset.
Things were planned, budgeted, underway, understood. But now?
How is it possible to continue to do our jobs effectively in a COVID- and
post-COVID
world?
We just can’t, not as we did before. Tear up old, linear 3- and 5-year plans;
the world that they were built for doesn’t exist anymore.
Even when the current crisis is over — and it feels like it’s already dragged on
for years — something new and different will have emerged. The terrain is so
dynamic, there’s no business Richter scale that can cope with it.
Okay, then: Time to adjust to the new reality! But how?
We need to think differently
The nature of the future has changed, and our thinking needs to change with it.
Broadly speaking, we used to plan like this:
-
See the future
-
Choose a direction
-
Take action
But now, we see that each of those phrases needs to be made plural. We need to:
In this article, we’ll focus on the first part, seeing multiple futures.
Seeing multiple futures
Before, we mostly treated “the future” as a single period, taking a few
speed-bumps in stride. But now, things have diverged much more radically —
splintering time into four very different time horizons:
-
Today
-
This quarter
-
This year
-
2021+
We can now see how essential it is to treat each separately with a simple
thought experiment: How do you rally a staff around the old three-year plan when
what what’s consuming their thoughts is addressing the massive crisis happening
right now… today?
Who can blame a coworker for asking, “The future is all well and good, but how
do I stay productive and focused with the kids home from school?” Or, “how do I
build and maintain essential relationships when there’s no in-person contact?”*
This clarity around distinct time frames is one of the core changes we need to
make to our thinking.
The other is the change from a predicted future to a set of possible
futures. We can’t be content to say, “Here’s what the world will look like at
the end of the year; now, what should we do?”
Instead, we have to say: “Here are several possibilities for what the world
could look like at the end of the year — now what could we do in each case?”
Four steps
We need to create specific pictures of what could happen and when, so we are
prepared for whatever ends up happening. To do that, we need to:
-
Select a focus (time horizon and breadth)
-
Consider the most influential factors
-
Differentiate between what is known and what isn’t
-
Determine which combinations of factors fit together naturally and which are
not likely to coexist
Step 1: Decide on your initial focus — time horizon and breadth
Are you thinking about where things stand today, or sometime next year? Is the
focus on the big picture — the planet, the country — or are you zeroed-in on
your own company? (Don’t worry, you’ll tackle additional horizons and scopes
later.)
For the purpose of this article, let’s use this quarter as the time horizon
and focus on the broadest global context.
Step 2: Identify key factors
List all key factors to be focused on. In the case of the focus we selected
earlier — broad context, this quarter — those factors would include things such
as how prevalent COVID-19 infections are, the direction of the economy, etc.
Here are some categories to get you started (feel free to add your own):
Now, if you combine the focus selected in Step 1 with key factors from Step 2,
you will be left with the questions such as:
“What will be the state of public health by the end of this quarter?
“What will be happening to the global / national economy by then?”
And so on.
Step 3: Create scenarios
In order to develop possible future scenarios, create a table that lists the six
key factors across the top. For each factor, gauge your level of confidence that
what you expect is what will happen.
-
For example, if the end of this quarter is mid-summer, there is high
confidence it will be hotter, so “hot” is written in the Environment column
-
If there is an element that is less certain, list several possibilities for
that factor in separate rows. Under the ‘Government’ column, for example,
you might be uncertain as to whether there will be a nationwide lockdown,
local shelter-in-place orders, or neither. If so, put “nationwide lockdown”
in one row, “local shelter-in-place” in another, and “no distancing” in a
third.
After you have done this for each key factor, scan across each row to see if it
adds up to a plausible, coherent scenario — one that makes sense to you.
For example, low levels of infection (Health) and no efforts to encourage
distancing (Government) could make sense together, while high levels of
infection and no distancing efforts are a combination we’re unlikely to
see.**
If the row makes sense, give it a title that captures its essence. We might call
a scenario with low levels of infection and no distancing efforts, “Moving
toward normal.” (See illustration.)
Step 4: Repeat the process for all time horizons
Once you’ve identified scenarios for your initial focus, it’s time to repeat the
process for other time horizon and breadth choices. Using end of this year as
a time horizon for instance, overall health might be improving — hurray! — but
still below pre-pandemic levels. Some regions might be close to peak for
infections, with others farther down the curve.
When you’ve finished, a much clearer picture of the possible futures you may
face — in each time frame — will have emerged. And you’ll have a lot more
clarity and be a lot less worried that you’re missing something critical.
Thus armed, you can create and test various potential strategies against
different scenarios and time frames. This will facilitate the creation of more
robust strategies better suited to today’s reality — and tomorrow’s.***
COVID-19 has fragmented the future. Your best-laid plans may lie broken. But it
is possible to bring order to a world of multiple, uncertain futures; and lay
the groundwork for the reset we need.
Stay safe!
* If you’re interested in learning more about our series of tools, tune into one of our free
webinars.*
** After you’ve finished your first pass, however, it is worthwhile
challenging even the assumptions you’re pretty confident are right. For example,
what would you do if the government encouraged socializing and getting back to
work even as the pandemic was still rising?
*** Planning and adaptation have their own set of tools, such as the robust
options and decisions scenario matrix (ROADS)
Published Apr 8, 2020 2pm EDT / 11am PDT / 7pm BST / 8pm CEST