Breeding New Hope for the Future of Coffee in a Climate-Changing World

World Coffee Research and its partner brands are directing vital investment and R&D into this globally popular yet critically underfunded, climate-vulnerable crop.

By Christian Yonkers | Published 1 month ago | About a 6 minute read

Image: World Coffee Research

Coffee is more than just a morning ritual for millions worldwide; it's a global industry deeply intertwined with multiple economies, cultures and complicated geopolitical landscapes — and one that’s being reshaped by the dual challenges of escalating demand and climate change.

As the climate warms, the ideal conditions for growing Arabica coffee — the dominant varietal, prized for its nuanced flavors and aromas — are shrinking rapidly. Projections indicate that by 2050, suitable land for Arabica cultivation could be halved — threatening supply amidst growing demand. In response, some innovators are working to save the popular beverage by fundamentally changing how “coffee” is produced; but industry giants and pre-competitive collaborations are determined to stay the course — accelerating efforts to develop climate-resilient coffee varieties to safeguard future production.

Bridging the investment gap

Coffee is one of the most under-invested crops in the world. The vast majority of coffee growers are smallholder farmers, who contribute 60 percent of global coffee production volume. Most smallholders operate in lower-income countries that lack the resources to invest in crop development. Many coffee-producing nations face the choice of allocating funds toward coffee varietal development or investing in critical infrastructure and services for citizens. As a result, today’s coffee growers are essentially recycling the same genetic material cultivated for the past 100 years.

“Coffee has only had a few hundred years to adapt from a forest environment to full-sun production as we see in Honduras or Brazil,” Vern Long, CEO of World Coffee Research (WCR) told Sustainable Brands® (SB). “The challenge is, there’s so little innovation. It’s not that coffee can’t handle climate change. It most definitely can — it has handled the transition from Ethiopian forests to moving all around the world. That to me sounds like a pretty resilient plant.”

WCR works to bridge the investment gap by providing scientific solutions securing a diverse and sustainable supply of quality coffee for growers of every size. Its approach involves a blend of traditional and modern techniques, combining low-tech breeding methods with advanced data science to unlock the largely untapped genetic potential of coffee plants.

A 2023 WCR assessment estimates that $452 million in annual investment is needed to keep pace with growing coffee demand. This figure starkly contrasts with the investment in other crops: For example, over 1,300 maize varieties were released globally between 1995 and 2015, while fewer than 30 new coffee varieties emerged in the same period. Additionally, since the 1960s, breeders have registered 5,314 distinct apple varieties; but only 119 coffee varieties are registered.

“In effect, there is 43x more innovation in apple breeding than in coffee — despite coffee generating $200B in value globally and employing many times more people in its agricultural sector,” said Hanna Neuschwander, WCR’s Director of Strategy and Communications. “The size of the gap is disproportionate to the value of coffee, and farming without greater innovation is unsustainable.”

The collaborative nature of WCR’s efforts ensures that advancements in coffee breeding are accessible to farmers globally. This holistic approach supports national governments in integrating modern breeding tools and creates a more equitable distribution of resources and knowledge.

For instance, WCR’s Innovea Global Arabica Breeding Network is a consortium — funded by over 200 coffee companies worldwide that comprise WCR’s membership — that tests coffee varieties in diverse agroecological environments across 10 countries. This multi-environment testing exposes the plants to various environmental pressures, allowing researchers to identify and release the most resilient varieties suited to different regions. This global network is co-financed by coffee roasters and national partners, ensuring that the best-performing varieties are developed and disseminated effectively. WCR also helps members implement regenerative agriculture techniques to increase both resilience and crop yields.

“It’s in everyone’s interest along the supply chain to optimize access and to maximize opportunities for farmers to access technology they need to successfully export coffee and start a more virtuous cycle, as opposed to the vicious cycle we’re currently in,” Long explained.

Industry players bridging the R&D gap

Other coffee industry players, such as Nestlé’s new Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NIAS), are also helping drive this innovation by developing high-yielding coffee varieties with superior climate and disease resistance. These new varieties are designed to thrive under varying environmental conditions while requiring lower inputs of water and nutrients, thus reducing their carbon footprint.

One notable product of NIAS’s research is the development of Star 4, a high-yielding Arabica variety known for its large bean size and resistance to coffee leaf rust — a major disease threatening coffee crops globally. Star 4’s enhanced productivity translates to more coffee per plant with fewer resources, reducing greenhouse gas emissions associated with coffee production. Currently, this variety is registered for cultivation in Brazil.

Meanwhile, a 240-ha coffee farm in Costa Rica serves as WCR member Starbucks’s global research, development and innovation hub. Similar to the NIAS, the Starbucks R&D team at Hacienda Alsacia has developed six climate-change resistant coffee varietals resistant to coffee leaf rust and other coffee diseases with an emphasis on increased quality productivity. Starbucks offers these varietals for free to farmers around the world through an open-source agronomy initiative — regardless of whether they sell to Starbucks or not. Over the last five years, Starbucks has distributed more than 3 million seeds for these resilient varietals to growers in China, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Mexico, Nicaragua and Peru.

In addition, Starbucks offers financing opportunities to help farmers access the capital and resources they need to adapt and thrive in a changing climate.

“Coffee farmers and farming communities are already feeling the impacts of climate change and our warming planet,” a Starbucks spokesperson told SB via email. “Starbucks’ future is directly linked to the livelihoods of farmers, their families and their communities; so, we take seriously our responsibility to care for the people who are part of the coffee journey.”

The combined efforts of organizations such as Nestlé, Starbucks and WCR aim to pave the way for a more resilient and sustainable coffee industry. As a tree crop, coffee trials tend to span decades — which means that most of the varieties being developed by WCR and its partners will reach market penetration in the 2030s. In the next three to six years, WCR will release about a hundred new varieties — with the expectation that they will reach market absorption in the 2030s.

“There’s a lot of doom and gloom about coffee and climate change,” Neuschwander said. “But humans will go to great lengths to ensure that coffee can be resilient in the face of climate change. As a science organization, we are actually very optimistic about the possibilities — and partly because coffee breeding is so far behind, we just get to leapfrog over all the years of disinvestment and make a lot of progress very quickly.”

Christian Yonkers

Christian is a writer, photographer, filmmaker, and outdoor junkie obsessed with the intersectionality between people and planet. He partners with brands and organizations with social and environmental impact at their core, assisting them in telling stories that change the world.

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